Know your edge in prediction markets
Predella is the trade journal and calibration analyzer for serious prediction-market traders. Capture a thesis on every trade and see whether your probabilities are actually calibrated.
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Brier
0.14
Edge
+6.1
Win rate
62%
A journal built for how markets resolve
Everything is descriptive: Predella shows you what your record reveals. What you do with it is up to you.
Calibration, measured
A reliability diagram and Brier score show how your predicted probabilities compare to what actually resolved — across every market you trade.
A thesis on every trade
Logging a trade requires a pre-trade thesis. Your reasoning is captured the moment you enter, not reconstructed after the fact.
A journal that remembers
Pre-trade theses and post-resolution reviews live together, so you can see how your thinking held up once the market settled.
Prediction-market mistake tags
Flag patterns like resolution-criteria-unread, oracle-risk, or revenge-bet — then filter your record to see where they show up.
Performance by dimension
Break your record down by category, probability bucket, and time to resolution to see where your record is strongest.
Built for Kalshi & Polymarket
Designed around how prediction markets actually resolve. Log manually today; account connections and CSV imports are on the way.
Start tracking your calibration
Get early access to the journal that measures whether your probabilities hold up.